Stats for Nerds

Deep dive into pack opening algorithms and probabilities

Lorwyn Eclipsed Play Booster

Lorwyn Eclipsed uses a sophisticated slot-based pack generation system. Each pack contains exactly 14 Magic cards plus 1 token/helper card, for a total of 15 cards. The pack is built slot-by-slot using weighted random selection based on official Wizards of the Coast probabilities. Fable frame, borderless, and extended-art cards are matched using Scryfall’s frame_effects and border_color (e.g. Fable = “showcase”).

Pack Structure Overview

  • 6-7 Commons - Base common cards from the main set
  • 3 Uncommons - Base uncommon cards from the main set
  • 1 Wildcard Slot - Can be any rarity (common, uncommon, rare, or mythic)
  • 1 Guaranteed Rare/Mythic Slot - Always rare or mythic
  • 1 Traditional Foil Slot - Can be any rarity, always foil
  • 1 Basic Land Slot - Can be default frame or full-art, foil or non-foil
  • 1 Token/Helper - From the TECL token set

Slot 1: Commons (6-7 cards)

The commons slot starts with 7 cards. However, there's a special mechanic that can reduce this to 6 cards.

Special Guest Replacement

In 1 out of every 55 packs, one common is replaced by a Special Guest card from the SPG set. When this happens, the pack contains 6 commons instead of 7.

Probability: 1/55 = 1.82% chance per pack
Special Guest Pool: 20 unique cards (can be any rarity: common, uncommon, rare, or mythic)

Logic Flow

  1. Generate random number between 0 and 1
  2. If number < (1/55), trigger Special Guest replacement
  3. If triggered: Add 6 commons + 1 Special Guest
  4. If not triggered: Add 7 commons
  5. Commons are selected randomly from the ECL set's common pool

Slot 2: Uncommons (3 cards)

Exactly 3 uncommon cards are added to every pack. Each uncommon slot has a chance to be a special "Fable frame" variant.

Uncommon Type Probability per Slot Notes
Regular Uncommon 90% Standard frame uncommon from ECL set
Fable Frame Uncommon 10% Special frame treatment uncommon

Logic Flow

  1. For each of the 3 uncommon slots:
  2. Generate random number between 0 and 1
  3. If number < 0.10 (10%), select Fable frame uncommon
  4. Otherwise, select regular uncommon
  5. Cards are selected randomly from the ECL set's uncommon pool

Slot 3: Wildcard Slot

This is the primary way to get extra rares or mythics in a Play Booster. The wildcard can be any rarity, with weighted probabilities. It can also upgrade to special treatments.

Outcome Probability Percentage
Main Set Common 0.18 18.0%
Main Set Uncommon 0.58 58.0%
Main Set Rare 0.19 19.0%
Main Set Mythic 0.02 2.0%
Fable Frame Uncommon 0.02 2.0%
Fable Frame Rare 0.009 0.9%
Fable Frame Mythic 0.001 <0.1%
Borderless Nonland Rare 0.01 1.0%
Borderless Nonland Mythic 0.001 <0.1%
Borderless Reversible Shock Land 0.001 <0.1%

Wildcard Slot Distribution

Key Insight

The wildcard slot has a 21.1% chance of being rare or mythic (19% + 2% + 0.9% + 0.1% + 1% + 0.1% + 0.1%). This is why you can get multiple rares in a single pack!

Logic Flow

  1. Generate random number between 0 and 1
  2. Use weighted random selection based on probability table above
  3. Select card from appropriate pool (common/uncommon/rare/mythic)
  4. If special treatment (Fable frame, borderless), filter by frame effect
  5. Add selected card to pack

Slot 4: Guaranteed Rare/Mythic Slot

This slot is always rare or mythic. It's the guaranteed "big hit" in every pack. However, it can also be upgraded to special treatments.

Outcome Probability Percentage
Main Set Rare 0.782 78.2%
Main Set Mythic 0.136 13.6%
Fable Frame Rare 0.046 4.6%
Fable Frame Mythic 0.012 1.2%
Borderless Nonland Rare 0.009 0.9%
Borderless Nonland Mythic 0.001 <0.1%
Borderless Reversible Shock Land 0.005 0.5%

Rare/Mythic Slot Distribution

Mythic Rate

The guaranteed rare/mythic slot has a 14.9% chance of being mythic (13.6% + 1.2% + 0.1% + 0.5%). This is higher than the traditional 1-in-8 (12.5%) rate because special treatments can also be mythic.

Slot 5: Traditional Foil Slot

Every pack contains exactly one traditional foil card. This slot can upgrade to rare or mythic, making it another source of extra rares. The card is always foil, regardless of rarity.

Outcome Probability Percentage
Foil Common 0.604 60.4%
Foil Uncommon 0.298 29.8%
Foil Rare 0.065 6.5%
Foil Mythic 0.011 1.1%
Foil Fable Frame Uncommon 0.01 1.0%
Foil Fable Frame Rare 0.009 0.9%
Foil Fable Frame Mythic 0.001 <0.1%
Foil Borderless Nonland Rare 0.01 1.0%
Foil Borderless Nonland Mythic 0.001 <0.1%
Foil Borderless Reversible Shock Land 0.001 <0.1%

Foil Slot Distribution

Rare/Mythic Upgrade Chance

The foil slot has a 8.6% chance of being rare or mythic (6.5% + 1.1% + 0.9% + 0.1% + 1.0% + 0.1% + 0.1%). Combined with the wildcard slot, this explains how packs can contain 2-4 rares!

Slot 6: Basic Land Slot

Every pack contains exactly one basic land. The land can be default frame or full-art, and can be foil or non-foil. Full-art lands are highly sought after!

Land Type Probability Percentage
Default Frame (Non-foil) 0.40 40%
Default Frame (Foil) 0.10 10%
Full-Art (Non-foil) 0.40 40%
Full-Art (Foil) 0.10 10%

Land Slot Distribution

Key Statistics

  • Full-art land odds: 50% per pack (40% + 10%)
  • Foil land odds: 20% per pack (10% + 10%)
  • Foil full-art land: 10% per pack

Slot 7: Token/Helper Card

Every pack contains exactly one token or helper card from the TECL (Lorwyn Eclipsed Tokens) set. If TECL tokens are unavailable, the system falls back to ECL set tokens.

Lorwyn Eclipsed Collector Booster

Each Lorwyn Eclipsed Collector Booster contains 15 Magic: The Gathering cards and one foil double-sided token, for a total of 16 items. Every card in the main 15 slots is either a guaranteed foil or a non-foil rare/mythic slot. Cards come from multiple set codes: ECL (main set), ECC (Commander), SPG (Special Guests), and the final slot from TECL (foil double-sided token).

Collector Booster Structure (16 items)

  • Slots 1–5: 5 traditional foil commons (ECL)
  • Slots 6–9: 4 traditional foil uncommons (ECL) — 36.4% can be Fable frame
  • Slot 10: 1 traditional foil full-art basic land (ECL)
  • Slot 11: 1 traditional foil rare or mythic (ECL) — 85.5% rare, 14.5% mythic
  • Slot 12: 1 non-foil Commander rare/mythic (ECC) — 9% borderless mythic, 91% extended-art rare
  • Slots 13–14: 2 non-foil Booster Fun rare/mythic (extended art, Fable frame, borderless, or reversible shock land)
  • Slot 15: 1 foil Booster Fun rare/mythic (extended art, Fable frame, borderless, shock land, Special Guest, Japan Showcase, or serialized Bitterbloom Bearer <1%)
  • Slot 16: 1 foil double-sided token (TECL)

Set codes in Collector Boosters

  • ECL — Lorwyn Eclipsed (main set; most cards)
  • ECC — Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander (non-foil rare/mythic slot)
  • SPG — Special Guests (foil Booster Fun slot only, 10.5%)
  • TECL — Foil double-sided token (slot 16)

Non-foil Commander slot (Slot 12) — probabilities

Outcome Probability Percentage
Borderless Mythic (ECC)0.099%
Extended Art Rare (ECC)0.9191%

Foil Booster Fun slot (Slot 15) — probabilities

Outcome Probability Percentage
Foil Extended Art Rare (ECL)0.30430.4%
Foil Fable Frame Rare0.27227.2%
Foil Fable Frame Mythic0.0737.3%
Foil Borderless Nonland Rare0.0525.2%
Foil Borderless Nonland Mythic0.0424.2%
Foil Borderless Reversible Shock Land0.0525.2%
Foil Special Guest (SPG)0.10510.5%
Japan Showcase Traditional Foil0.099%
Japan Showcase Fracture Foil0.011%
Serialized Bitterbloom Bearer0.001<0.1%

Non-foil Booster Fun slots (Slots 13–14) — per slot

Outcome Probability Percentage
Extended Art Rare (ECL)0.37737.7%
Fable Frame Rare0.33733.7%
Fable Frame Mythic0.0919.1%
Borderless Nonland Rare0.1313%
Borderless Nonland Mythic0.0454.5%
Borderless Reversible Shock Land0.022%

Slot 16

One foil double-sided token from the TECL (Lorwyn Eclipsed Tokens) set.

Collector Booster formula: at least one special card

By design, every Collector Booster has at least one special-treatment card when the set has any. Slots 10 (full-art land), 12 (Commander), 13–14 (non-foil Booster Fun), and 15 (foil Booster Fun) are always filled from treatments when the pool allows. If a pack would otherwise have zero special cards, the builder replaces slot 15 with a random special card from the pool so the pack always has at least one.

How we match special treatments (Scryfall)

Card data comes from Scryfall. We treat a card as “special treatment” if it has frame_effects including showcase, extendedart, or fullart, or border_color = borderless. Fable frame cards are tagged as showcase in Scryfall. For slots that call for a treatment (e.g. Fable frame, extended art, borderless), we try the exact tag first, then any card with a treatment, then any card of that rarity so you still get a card when the set uses different tags.

Collector Booster summary

  • 5 rares or mythics minimum per pack (slot 11 + slot 12 + slots 13–14 + slot 15)
  • 11–12 traditional foils (5 commons + 4 uncommons + 1 land + 1 rare/mythic + 1 foil Booster Fun; slot 16 is the foil double-sided token)
  • At least one special-treatment card per pack when the set has any (full-art land, Booster Fun, Commander, or safety fill)
  • Serialized Bitterbloom Bearer (Rebecca Guay) appears in <1% of Collector Boosters

Simulation: Fabled Frame cards (100 Collector Boosters)

Our pack builder was run on 100 Lorwyn Eclipsed Collector Boosters. Results:

  • Average Fabled Frame cards per Collector pack: ~2.9
  • Packs with at least one Fabled Frame: ~98%
  • Max Fabled Frame in a single pack: 6 (foil uncommons + non-foil Booster Fun + foil Booster Fun can all hit)

You can pull up to four or more Fabled Frame cards in one pack when the right slots hit (e.g. 1 foil uncommon + 2 non-foil Booster Fun + 1 foil Booster Fun).

How the Algorithm Works

Weighted Random Selection

The pack builder uses a weighted random selection algorithm to determine outcomes. Here's how it works:

  1. Generate a random number between 0 and 1
  2. Normalize probabilities (in case they don't sum to exactly 1.0)
  3. Create cumulative probability ranges for each outcome
  4. Find which range the random number falls into
  5. Select that outcome

Example: For the wildcard slot, if the random number is 0.75, it falls in the range 0.76-0.95 (uncommon), so an uncommon is selected.

Card Pool Management

To prevent duplicate cards in a single pack, the system tracks which cards have already been selected:

  • Each card has a unique ID from Scryfall
  • When a card is selected, its ID is added to a "used cards" set
  • Future selections filter out already-used cards
  • This ensures no duplicate cards appear in the same pack

Slot-by-Slot Building

Play Booster — built in order:

  1. Commons: Add 6-7 cards (checking for Special Guest)
  2. Uncommons: Add 3 cards (10% Fable frame per slot; we match Scryfall “showcase” for Fable)
  3. Wildcard: Select based on weighted probabilities (Fable/borderless use treatment matching)
  4. Rare/Mythic: Select guaranteed rare/mythic (treatment matching for Fable/borderless)
  5. Foil: Select foil card (any rarity; treatment matching for Fable/borderless)
  6. Land: Select basic land (frame and foil status)
  7. Token: Select token from TECL set

Collector Booster — 15 MTG cards + 1 token/art, in order: 5 foil commons → 4 foil uncommons (36.4% Fable) → 1 foil full-art land → 1 foil rare/mythic → 1 non-foil Commander (ECC) → 2 non-foil Booster Fun → 1 foil Booster Fun → 1 token/art. After building, if the pack has zero special-treatment cards and the pool has any, slot 15 is replaced with a random special card so every pack has at least one.

Special Treatment Matching

For slots that call for Fable frame, extended art, or borderless, we use Scryfall’s frame_effects and border_color:

  • Fable frame: match showcase or fable (Scryfall uses “showcase” for custom frames like Fable)
  • Extended art: match extendedart
  • Borderless: match borderless or showcase, or border_color = borderless
  • Full-art land: match showcase, extendedart, or fullart

If no card matches the exact treatment, we prefer any card with a treatment (showcase, extendedart, borderless) over a plain card, so you still see special frames when the set uses different tags.

Set Code Handling

Lorwyn Eclipsed packs can contain cards from multiple set codes:

  • ECL: Main Lorwyn Eclipsed set (most cards)
  • SPG: Special Guests (Play: replaces a common in 1/55 packs; Collector: foil Booster Fun slot)
  • ECC: Lorwyn Eclipsed Commander (Collector Booster only — non-foil rare/mythic slot)
  • TECL: Tokens (Play: slot 15; Collector: slot 16 foil double-sided token)

The system fetches cards from all relevant sets and correctly assigns set codes to each card in the pack.

Example Pack Scenarios

Example 1: Standard Pack (1 Rare)

This is the most common outcome (~73% of packs):

  • 7 Commons (no Special Guest)
  • 3 Uncommons
  • Wildcard: Common (18% chance)
  • Rare/Mythic Slot: Rare (78.2% chance)
  • Foil Slot: Foil Common (60.4% chance)
  • 1 Land (non-foil, default frame)
  • 1 Token

Result: 1 rare, 11 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 foil common, 1 land, 1 token

Example 2: Double Rare Pack (2 Rares)

This happens in ~27% of packs:

  • 7 Commons
  • 3 Uncommons
  • Wildcard: Rare (19% chance) ← Extra rare!
  • Rare/Mythic Slot: Rare (78.2% chance)
  • Foil Slot: Foil Common (60.4% chance)
  • 1 Land
  • 1 Token

Result: 2 rares, 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 foil common, 1 land, 1 token

Example 3: Triple Rare Pack (3 Rares)

This happens in ~2% of packs:

  • 7 Commons
  • 3 Uncommons
  • Wildcard: Rare (19% chance)
  • Rare/Mythic Slot: Rare (78.2% chance)
  • Foil Slot: Foil Rare (6.5% chance) ← Extra rare!
  • 1 Land
  • 1 Token

Result: 3 rares (1 regular, 1 wildcard, 1 foil), 10 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 land, 1 token

Example 4: Special Guest Pack

This happens in ~1.82% of packs (1 in 55):

  • 6 Commons (one replaced by Special Guest)
  • 1 Special Guest (from SPG set, can be any rarity)
  • 3 Uncommons
  • Wildcard: Uncommon (58% chance)
  • Rare/Mythic Slot: Rare (78.2% chance)
  • Foil Slot: Foil Common (60.4% chance)
  • 1 Land
  • 1 Token

Result: If Special Guest is rare/mythic, you could have 2-3 rares+ in this pack!

Example 5: Quad Rare Pack (4 Rares+)

This happens in <1% of packs:

  • 6 Commons + 1 Special Guest (rare/mythic)
  • 3 Uncommons
  • Wildcard: Rare (19% chance)
  • Rare/Mythic Slot: Rare (78.2% chance)
  • Foil Slot: Foil Rare (6.5% chance)
  • 1 Land
  • 1 Token

Result: 4 rares+ (Special Guest + Wildcard + Guaranteed + Foil), 9 commons, 3 uncommons, 1 land, 1 token

Example 6: Lorwyn Eclipsed Collector Booster (typical)

Every Collector Booster has 15 MTG cards + 1 token/art. A typical pack:

  • Slots 1–5: 5 traditional foil commons (ECL)
  • Slots 6–9: 4 traditional foil uncommons (some may be Fable frame)
  • Slot 10: 1 foil full-art basic land
  • Slot 11: 1 foil rare or mythic (ECL)
  • Slot 12: 1 non-foil Commander rare/mythic (ECC — extended art or borderless)
  • Slots 13–14: 2 non-foil Booster Fun rare/mythic (extended art, Fable, borderless, or shock land)
  • Slot 15: 1 foil Booster Fun (extended art, Fable, borderless, Special Guest, Japan Showcase, or serialized)
  • Slot 16: Foil double-sided token (TECL)

Result: 5 rares/mythics minimum, 11–12 foils, at least one special-treatment card

Pack Statistics Summary

Rare/Mythic Distribution

Mythic Odds

  • Guaranteed slot: 14.9% mythic
  • Wildcard slot: ~2.1% mythic
  • Foil slot: ~1.2% mythic
  • Special Guest: Variable (can be mythic)

Land Odds

  • Full-art land: 50% per pack
  • Foil land: 20% per pack
  • Foil full-art: 10% per pack

Special Cards (Play Booster)

  • Special Guest: 1.82% (1 in 55)
  • Fable frame uncommon: 10% per slot
  • Foil rare/mythic: 8.6% chance

Collector Booster Summary

  • 5 rares/mythics minimum per pack (slots 11, 12, 13–14, 15)
  • 11–12 traditional foils (5 commons + 4 uncommons + land + slot 11 + foil Booster Fun; slot 16 = foil double-sided token)
  • ~2.9 Fabled Frame cards per pack on average (simulation over 100 Collector Boosters; up to 6 possible in one pack)
  • At least one special-treatment card per pack (guaranteed when pool has any)
  • Slot 16: One foil double-sided token (TECL)
  • Serialized Bitterbloom Bearer: <0.1% of Collector Boosters

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